An interesting finding in the recent 2016 Penton’s Aviation Week Business Aviation Forecast Summary was that the King Air 300/350 is expected to be one of the top five aircraft deliveries occurring over the next decade. The other four were the Pilatus PC-12, Gulfstream G650, Challenger 300/350 and Phenom 300. The forecast also noted that the world’s western produced in-service business fleets will increase from 31,000 aircraft in 2016 to nearly 38,000 aircraft at the end of 2025, translating to a 2.3% annual growth rate.
“The 2016 forecast expectations show that the North American market will dominate the world sales and MRO demand for years to come; and will also have a vibrant fleet replacement cycle with nearly 3,400 aircraft retirements and over 8,000 aircraft deliveries,” said Brian Kough, director of forecasts and Analysis with Aviation Week Intelligence Network.
2015 has so far been a good year for the start of the forecast. For the first half 2015, Argus International, a Cincinnati-based market research firm discovered that aircraft sales have been mostly positive. Large-cabin aircraft activity was up 4.2% compared to the the same period in 2014 and turboprop sales were up 2.3%. Small-cabin were up only 1% and mid-sized cabin sales remained flat.
King Air sales, and specifically the 350, have been bolstered by their popularity with the new rising crop of private charter services such as Wheels Up, Surf Air and Rise. The services offer membership based monthly plans that allow for a much lower price to fly private as opposed to fractional ownership or straight charter.
A couple of additional general aviation tidbits from the forecast:
- Maintenance, repair and overhaul service demand is expected to reach $121.8 billion for the decade.
- China’s fleet will grow by 9%; (it currently has a small fleet). North America, the largest market, will grow at 2.3%.
- In-service fleet share for North America will remain constant during the decade at 63.5% while Western Europe will increase its share to 12.5% of the world’s fleet. Eastern Europe and China will also gain fleet share while Latin America and Africa are expected to lose fleet share.